OBAMA AND THE RIGHT

Posted at 9:04 a.m. ET

Joel Mowbray, one of the best investigative reporters around, examines the results of the election and concludes that President-elect Obama needs the political right to survive because, contrary to the image created by some pundits, the nation didn't change much ideologically in 2008.  This may partially explain why Obama has moved to the center in many of his appointments:

The most under-reported story of the election is that conservative voters provided the margin of victory for Barack Obama—a finding that has dramatic implications for both Democrats and Republicans.

Normally winning with impressive margins in the popular vote and Electoral College would translate into a governing mandate. Obama’s victory was not an ideological one, however. The electorate is almost exactly as center-right as it was in 2004. The Bush 2004 voters who pushed Obama over the top rejected Bush and the GOP, but not conservative principles.

Some proof:

In 2004, a 49%-46% plurality of exit poll respondents said the government should not “do more to solve problems.” In the immediate aftermath of the meltdown on Wall Street that the media blamed on free markets run amok, a slim majority of voters, 51%, thought the government should do more.

And...

Defying conventional wisdom, Obama’s vaunted ground game only boosted liberal and youth turnout by one percent each of the total electorate. A detailed examination of exit polling suggests that the Democrat’s victory primarily was sparked by two key factors:

1) Many conservatives who used to consider themselves Republicans no longer do.

2) Almost one-fifth of Bush 2004 voters chose Obama, with the biggest defectors being conservative-leaning independents: that is “Security Moms” and Catholics...

...Self-identified conservatives in exit polling comprised 34% of voters in both 2004 and 2008, yet the number who called themselves Republican dropped from 37% to 32%.

There are other indications that conservative principles are alive and vigorous in 2008:

Even on what is presumed to be safe liberal territory—the environment—the electorate did not tilt leftward. As reported on the Wall Street Journal web site, “Among five major energy and environmental ballot initiatives from California to Missouri, all but one were voted down.”

Further...

Two key right-leaning constituencies deserted Republicans: “Security Moms” and Catholics. Though the media has made the “gender gap” a household term, the more apt classification was a “marriage gap.” Single women were heavily Democrat, and married women leaned Republican. “Security Moms” became the label for married mothers attracted to the hawkishness of the GOP.

And Catholics:

Falling from Bush’s 44% of the Latino vote to 31% clearly hurt McCain’s figures in the Catholic vote. But that drop alone could not account for much more than half of the loss he experienced overall among Catholics. The bulk of the remaining Catholic voters that switched from Bush in 2004 to Obama this year likely came from cultural conservatives, including so-called values voters and Reagan Democrats.

And the implications for the future:

Unlike most politicians who seek to define themselves sharply, Obama proudly defined himself as whatever different voters wanted him to be. Accomplishing this feat in a heated election was a tall order, but in governing, it becomes nearly impossible. In policy battles, there are winners and losers because lines are drawn, and sides must be taken.

For Obama to maintain the coalition that elected him, he needs to come down on the right side of that line more often than most in his party would like.

From Mowbray's mouth to you-know-whose ears.  Obama needs to maintain that coalition to become a two-term president.  MoveOn.org never elected any president, and Obama's political team knows that.  They can read the numbers. 

Bill Clinton understood the need for centrism, too, and became the first Democratic president since Roosevelt to be elected to two full terms.  Obama's first appointments show a centrist bent.  If he governs center or center-left, and succeeds in his policies, he will probably win again in 2012.  If he veers left, to his ideological roots, he will get applause on the West Side of Manhattan and in the teeming precincts of Hollywood, and be sent back to his gracious Chicago home in four years.

I'll bet center left. 

December 2, 2008.